|
|
Post by wcugamer2 on Nov 12, 2021 8:37:52 GMT -5
To me, this weekends game between Mercer and Chatty is a de facto playoff game. The winner will likely receive the conference auto bid, barring any chaos in the final week of play.
The loser of the Mercer/Chatt game, still controls their own destiny, as long as they handle their business in the last game of the regular season.
Mercer has the harder road ahead of them, as after the Chatt game, they play ETSU. Chatt finishes with Citadel.
VMI needs to win out in order to make the playoffs. And I think Furman and WCU are both capable of beating VMI these last two weeks. I think one or both of VMI's opponents will pull off a win, and VMI is left out of the playoffs.
ESTU is likely a lock to get in the playoffs, regardless of the last two weeks of play outcomes. They have a FBS victory and can finish no worse than 8-3 overall. Even if ETSU drops to 5-3 in conference, I still see them getting a bid.
Here is what I predict: In - Chattanooga, Mercer, ETSU Out - VMI, WCU, FU, Samford, Wofford, Citadel,
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugrad95 on Nov 12, 2021 9:45:01 GMT -5
Mercer has some cards stacked against them. They only play 10 games and one of those was against a D2 school. They also got crushed by VMI 45-7. If they lose either of their last 2 games it might be iffy, and they play UTC and ETSU to finish. If they lose both, they are not getting in with only 6 D1 wins and a 7-3 record.
And I know we all want WCU to win this weekend, but ETSU is also in the mix for the SoCon championship and auto-bid. If Mercer and ETSU both win this weekend, next week would be for the title. My guess is things work out where the SoCon only gets 2 in. I just don’t know the 2. The loser of the Mercer/UTC game will be sweating out hoping a 3rd team gets in, because you know conferences like the MVFC and Big Sky expect to get 4 or more teams in.
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugamer2 on Nov 13, 2021 20:24:53 GMT -5
With Mercer winning over UTC today, I think they are in the playoffs. If they can knock off ETSU next Saturday, and if UTC beats Citadel, I still think the SoCon gets three teams in the playoffs.
|
|
|
|
Post by catamountalum04 on Nov 13, 2021 21:02:21 GMT -5
I think only 2
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugrad95 on Nov 14, 2021 0:42:13 GMT -5
I’d say UTC is going to be on the outside looking in. Their early season loss to APSU hurts, and they are going to be a 7-4 team. There are too many 7 to 8 win teams from the conferences that are now considered ahead of the SoCon for them to make it. I think both ETSU and Mercer make it regardless of next week’s outcome. Mercer even if they lose would get the nod over Chatty in my opinion given the head-to-head win today.
Huge win for Mercer.
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugrad95 on Nov 14, 2021 9:53:35 GMT -5
Thinking about it, Mercer probably has to beat ETSU to get in. Because they only play 10 games and 1 was a D2 school, if they don’t win Saturday they will only have 6 D1 wins. Very similar to us several years ago when we won 7 games but one was D2. So now I am guessing Mercer and ETSU only if Mercer wins - there will be lots of teams with 7 or 8 D1 wins for the committee to choose from.
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugamer2 on Nov 20, 2021 19:38:51 GMT -5
After the outcomes of today's games, I think the SoCon might only get one team in.
ETSU is obviously a lock...
Mercer is good enough to be in, but with only 6 D1 wins, who knows?? They played a really solid game against ETSU. The Bears will sweat it out until tomorrow's announcement
Chatt losing to Citadel was bad.....they are staying home
VMI loosing to both FU and WCU sealed their fate.....no post-season for them either.
|
|
|
|
Post by Speedwell Cat on Nov 21, 2021 14:58:50 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by catamountalum04 on Nov 21, 2021 16:42:37 GMT -5
There is such a mid west bias
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugrad95 on Nov 21, 2021 21:28:42 GMT -5
Even worse - some of those conferences (MVFC, Big Sky, etc.) are huge and they don’t play all the teams. So somebody could have 6 or 7 wins and have only played the worst teams in their leagues to get many of them. A 5-loss team with only 6 wins has no business being in the playoffs, but “because they have 3 good wins and are in the MVFC” they get in.
Of course it used to be the SoCon would get 3 or 4 in, and it was because we had teams winning lots of playoff games and championships (Marshall, Georgia Southern, App). Furman used to get in most years and make noise - winning a couple of championships and typically winning 1 or 2 games. If ETSU can make a little run this year it would help the conference out. Get 3 teams in and then we need two of them to win at least 1 game. Regionalization will probably mean 2 SoCon teams would meet in the 2nd round, but that is generally true for the other guys, too.
Reality is we’ll have to prove this is a tough and deep league by playoff success to outsiders who don’t watch these teams closely enough. Perception is reality.
|
|
