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Post by wcugamer2 on Oct 29, 2023 18:30:03 GMT -5
There is a "possibility" of 5 SoCon teams who still have a shot to make the playoffs:
1) Furman - likely the only "lock" right now. Big game at UTC Saturday. A win and the Dins are a likely top 3 seed. I predict they finish 10-0 vs fcs
2) UTC - The Furman game this Saturday is a defacto SoCon championship game, and a must win for UTC to make the playoffs. UTC is 6-1 in SoCon play and 7-2 overall, with 1 game vs the fcs remaining. They finish at Alabama. 8-3 gets them in the playoffs, but 7-4 leaves them out.
3) Mercer - The win vs WCU kept their playoff hopes alive. Currently at 6-2 vs fcs opponents with a big game at home against Samford to finish the season (playoff bubble game?) The Bears can get to 8-3 if they win out
4) WCU - Currently at 5-2 vs fcs opponents, have 3 winnable games remaining and can get to 8-3 overall. The best WCU can hope for is 6-2 in conference, which would be tied with possibly 3 other teams for 2nd place
5) Samford - Currently at 5-4 overall, 5-3 vs fcs, can get to 7-4 overall and reach the 7 fcs win minimum for the playoffs. However, they can at best finish SoCon play with a 5-3 record. The game against Mercer probably does get Sammy in, even with a win, but would likely keep Mercer out. But, Samford finishes the regular season with UT Martin, who is also a playoff contender. Win out, and who knows
So which teams are likely playoff teams, and who sees their playoff bubble burst?? And, who can make some noise in the playoffs?
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Post by cbyland on Oct 29, 2023 19:11:32 GMT -5
The only lock is Furman and at this point, as much as it sours our stomach for WCUs sake and playoff hopes we need to pull for Furman next week because if Furman beats Chatty they will be the SoCon champs, it will put Chatty at 6-2 and as long as we win out we have the tie breaker, if they lose to Furman they will finish 7-4 and they are not beating Alabama.
Mercer and Samford is another one that could go either way, we need to root for Samford because we beat them and that eliminates Mercer from the FCS and as long as we win out we would finish in 2nd place and puts us in the playoffs.
If Chatty beats Furman and Samford beats Mercer, we probably still get in, but if Chatty beats Furman and Mercer beats Samford, even if we win all 3, we will be sweating on selection day with our fingers crossed we hear our name.
So it is hard to say this but for WCUs sake we need to pull for Furman against Chatty and Samford against Mercer.
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 29, 2023 20:51:55 GMT -5
I think any 8-3/6-2 in SOCON teams get in. If UTC beats Furman and we have FU at 9-2, then WCU, UTC, and Mercer all at 8-3, I could see the impossible and the SOCON gets 4 in.
More probable is Furman beats UTC and they will be out at 7-4 (even though 6-2 in conference). I don’t think any 7-4 SOCON team gets in, so if WCU or Mercer drops another one we would be out. I will not be surprised if it is only 2 teams - Furman and whoever gets to 8. Mercer has on paper the toughest test against Samford. And of course we are fighting injuries and history.
Samford can also get to 7 wins that would include probably 2 over ranked teams (assuming Mercer and UT-Martin are both ranked when they play). But again, I think it will take 8 wins to make it.
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Post by catman on Oct 29, 2023 21:02:44 GMT -5
We need to put this Mercer game in our rear view mirror. The turnovers were catastrophic. Didn’t we fall into a funk around this time last year? I hope Bell can get this team built back up for these next 3. If we continue to look the same I predict we go 1-2 to finish the season and fall back to where they picked us to finish at the beginning of the season.
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Post by cullowheeguy on Oct 29, 2023 21:09:10 GMT -5
Samford would only be 6-3 against FCS teams and they wouldn’t have have that 7 win treshold. So if might be a stretch for them to get in. One of there wins is again a division 2 teams and one of their loses is against a power 5 team. They would have 2 top 25 wins in this scenario with wins against Mercer and UT Martin. I think it would be better for the conference for Mercer to beat Samford. They would be 8-2 FCS opposite with 8 FCS wins.
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Post by FLCATAMOUNT on Oct 29, 2023 21:13:04 GMT -5
We will be on the bubble even if we win out. We should concentrate on beating Wofford this week and stop with all the playoffs discussion. I hope we make the playoffs but we need to beat Wofford first.
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Post by wcatradio75 on Oct 30, 2023 7:23:19 GMT -5
Looking at the stats from this game, it was very winnable - EXCEPT - 6 turnovers and 80 yards in penalties. We are in a difficult situation right now and our only hope is to win out against 3 teams that have played close games against all of the teams ahead of us. ONE WEEK AT A TIME BOYS! We must take care of business to even hope to get a bid at this point. The good news is that the top of the conference has a lot of respect nationally this year and we need to prove we deserve to be in the hunt.
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 30, 2023 7:32:06 GMT -5
There seems to be respect coming even in places like the AGS board. You can follow threads there that say an 8-win SOCON team is in, and discussion about that a 7-win UTC team with a close loss to Furman is arguably worthy. We have 2 close losses and tough games against now ranked teams the last 2 weeks without our best player. If we take care of what is in front of us - teams that have played better but that we are better than - we will be ok. All the team can do is buckle down and go win the games.
Our playoffs truly do start now - another loss and I really don’t see any way we make it. I am hopeful that is an edge that keeps the team laser-focused.
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Post by purplegold1 on Oct 30, 2023 9:23:29 GMT -5
I think the WCU scenario is simple. Win out and in. Loss and will be out
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Post by wcu77 on Oct 30, 2023 14:11:41 GMT -5
If we end up 8 and 3, I think we get in. A loss to Arkansas is nothing to be ashamed of and with just two conference losses, should that loss really hurt us?
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