|
|
Post by wcu77 on Nov 10, 2023 6:50:59 GMT -5
We have to take care of business and win these last two weeks, which is the only thing we can control. I hope we win, and win convincingly which can make the decision to include us easier. It will be hard to leave us out with an 8-3 record when one of the losses is to Arkansas in the first game. It's just my opinion but I don't really even consider that loss in our record and if we win out we are realistically 8-2. I consider these "money" games almost like exhibition or pre season and are games we have no realistic chance to win. Win out and I don't think the committee can really hold that loss against us.
JUST WIN this weekend...GO CATS
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugrad95 on Nov 10, 2023 11:58:37 GMT -5
Agree 77. The Arkansas loss really doesn't impact anything. The only time FBS games factor in (usually) is if the FCS team pulls the upset. We clearly have to get to 8-3, but if we can do that our FCS losses will be to 2 other ranked teams (Furman should probably finish the season as the #2 or at worst the #3 team if Montana wins out and leapfrogs them).
That being said, the committee I think also factors in pretty heavily team's best wins (probably more than best losses). That is the one area that hurts us. UTC is now going to finish 7-4, will probably still be ranked, but very well may find themselves as one of the "last 4 out" bubble teams. EKU has had a brutal season - they have lost something like 6 games by 1 score or less. It would have helped had they won a bunch of them and were in the playoff conversation. Samford can do us some favors but it is a double-edged sword. If they beat Mercer and UT-Martin, that hurts two other bubble teams and it makes the win against Samford better. But it also means Mercer moves down to a team that is probably out and they beat us.
Lots of "ifs" in there. As everybody has said now we just have to do our job and win. What other people do should have no impact on what we know we have to do.
|
|
catman72
Redshirt Freshman
2023 SoCon Football Pick'em Champion & 2022 SoCon Football Pick'em Co-Champion
Posts: 408
|
Post by catman72 on Nov 10, 2023 13:31:26 GMT -5
If Mercer beats Samford they are in the playoffs....You can pretty much take that to the bank.....If they do it with style points they are a shoe in!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by cbyland on Nov 10, 2023 17:33:16 GMT -5
The SoCon will get 2 for sure in (possibly 3 this year as 5 teams are pretty balanced). For WCU, we have to beat ETSU and VMI or we are out but if we do, I don't think it matters whether we win by 1 or win by 100, we will be 8-3 and we get in style points or not. I think style points may improve our ranking a little it might improve our chances of hosting 1 round or getting a better opponent but I don't think it affects whether we get in. Mercer has to beat Samford or they do not get in, if they do beat Samford and we win out, all 3 of us get in. They will get in by beating us, we get in by beating UTC. But again, the key is WCU has to take care of business against ETSU and VMI. "Whee win, Whee in"  , we lose 1 against the bottom teams of the SoCon and we are out. But I am going to root for Samford tomorrow as that ensures that as long as we win out, we finish second in the SoCon. |
|
catman72
Redshirt Freshman
2023 SoCon Football Pick'em Champion & 2022 SoCon Football Pick'em Co-Champion
Posts: 408
|
Post by catman72 on Nov 10, 2023 17:46:25 GMT -5
I agree.....Pulling for Samford big time but I think Mercer might be peaking at a good time but still if Samford could pull it off we have 2nd place as long as we can take care of our business.....
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugamer2 on Nov 10, 2023 19:51:58 GMT -5
Samford is playing good football right now. I'm glad we got them early in the season. They played Furman really well, and I think they will knock Mercer off on Saturday, and knock Mercer down to the bubble.
If Mercer is on the bubble with UTC, I would go with UTC. But, if Mercer loses, both UTC and Mercer may get left out
A lot can happen in the next two weeks. The SoCon is capable of getting 4 teams in the post-season, (Furman, Mercer, UTC, and WCU) but if teams slip up and lose in week 11 or 12, I could also see a scenario where only Furman gets in
If Mercer wins, they are in
If WCU wins out, they are in
If Samford wins out.....Mercer is out, and things get complicated
UTC is at the mercy of what happens to other teams in the conference (unless they pull a miracle and beat Bama)
|
|
|
|
Post by FLCATAMOUNT on Nov 10, 2023 20:47:55 GMT -5
In the last several years, the SoCon has not gotten much love from the selection committee. We need to win out and win decisively. If we barely beat ETSU and VMI, I can see a scenario where we do not get in and fall further down in the STATS Poll. We won last week and fell in the polls. I don’t think we should get cocky and say we are a shoe in. If Mercer wins out, it may just be Furman and Mercer in and we might be on the outside looking in. That’s why we need to dominate in the next 2 weeks.
|
|
|
|
Post by jackdaniels03 on Nov 11, 2023 17:11:46 GMT -5
How does this work for us? If we beat VMI next week and go 8-3 and Mercer beats Samford today to go 8-3. What's the tie breaker? Ranked wins or out of conference wins?
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugrad95 on Nov 11, 2023 18:00:43 GMT -5
Tiebreaker for what? We would both finish tied for 2nd in the SOCON and we would both be at-large playoff teams. Ties only matter for figuring out who the automatic playoff bid is for the conference championship. If we are 6-2, and UTC is already finished at 6-2, we would all just be tied for 2nd in the conference.
In terms of the playoff committee, they would hopefully look at things like beating teams who were ranked when you beat them. We beat Samford when they were top-10, and against UTC. Mercer would only have 1 ranked win (over us). I also think the committee takes into consideration things like injuries.
|
|
|
|
Post by wcugrad95 on Nov 11, 2023 19:00:13 GMT -5
Things are getting interesting around the "bubble" of the playoffs. NC Central is getting hammered by Howard. They may still be able to win their conference and go to the Celebration Bowl, but if they don't they will not get into the playoffs with such a bad loss (Howard was 4-5 coming into the game). North Dakota lost to South Dakota, meaning they will most likely end up with 7 wins. Northern Iowa got beat by 4-6 Missouri State that means UNI will probably end up at 6-5. Southern Illinois got smacked by North Dakota State, so SIU will probably finish 7-4.
Idaho is going to get in, but their loss is good for Furman in terms of seeding. Montana might move ahead of them if they beat Montana State next week, but I'd say FU is pretty set for either the #2 or #3 seed. Mercer should be in, and if we can win and get 8 wins we should get in. If all these teams keep losing and end up at 7-4 or even 6-5, it would be very good for UTC.
I know people have gotten tired of playoff and ranking talk, but a lot of these losses and our convincing win probably means WCU moves up in the polls this week.
|
|
, we lose 1 against the bottom teams of the SoCon and we are out. But I am going to root for Samford tomorrow as that ensures that as long as we win out, we finish second in the SoCon.
